Michigan 2013 Grouse Forecast

Michigan 2013 Spring Breeding Surveys

Ruffed Grouse Drumming Survey

Ruffed grouse drumming counts were conducted statewide 
along 97 survey routes during April and May 2013. 
There was an average of 10.7 drums heard per routes 
statewide, a 13 % decline from 2012 (12.3) average

(Figure 8). 

Highest drumming counts were in Zone 1 
(Upper Peninsula; 14.4), following by Zone 2 
(Northern Lower Peninsula; 9.4) and Zone 3 
(Southern Lower Peninsula; 6.4) (Figure 7).

In 2012, 103 survey routes were conducted statewide and 
paired t - tests were performed to statistically compare 
data from 87 identical routes run in both 2012 and 2013. 

Statewide there was a 10.3 % decrease 
(n=87; t=1.15 , P=0.25) in the average number of 
drums heard per route between 2012 (11.8) and 2013 
(10.6). Analysis at the regional scale indicated there 
was no significant difference (n=26; t=0.82 , P=0.41) 
in the number of drums heard per route in Zone 1 
(Upper Peninsula) between 2012 (17.4) and 2013 (14.9). 
There was no significant change in the average number 
of drums heard per route in Zone 2 
(Northern Lower Peninsula)

between 2012 (9.9) and 2013 (9.1; n=53 ; t= 0.90 , P=0.38 ).

In zone 3, there were 8 routes conducted in both 2012 
and 2013. Due to the low sample size, statistical analysis 
at the Zone 3 regional scale is not appropriate.

See the Michigan DNR Report for the full study

Michigan’s 2013 Ruffed Grouse Forecast

With September 15^th just around the corner, we’ve been taking a look at some of the forecast data provided by both Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) Wildlife Division, as well as the summary provided annually by the Ruffed Grouse Society (RGS).

And now, the forecast. According to MDNR Upland Game Bird Specialist and Program Leader Al Stewart, grouse drumming surveys were conducted during the months of April and May of this year.  Data collected from the same 2012 sampling areas found a 10 percent decline in the number of drums heard on a year-to-year basis. As was the case in prior years, the highest number of drumming counts was found in the upper peninsula, followed by the northern lower, then southern lower. With the exception of some areas of the upper peninsula, the statistical differences between 2012 and 2013 did not appear to be significant.

According to Stewart, 2013 grouse populations will likely have a slight decline from 2012 levels, following their cyclical peak which was believed to have been reached in 2011.  Despite the late arrival of spring this year, breeding conditions for both grouse and woodcock are believed to have been favorable.  These conditions have the potential to result in a statewide harvest of 240,000 grouse and 74,000 woodcock during the 2013 seasons.

Just as a reminder, although the ruffed grouse season begins with the small game season on September 15^th, opening day for woodcock hunting is set for September 21^st.

Department of Natural Resources Upland Game Bird Specialist and Program Leader Al Stewart reports, ruffed grouse drumming counts were conducted statewide along 95 survey routes during April and May 2013. Using data from 87 routes run in both 2012 and 2013, statewide there was a 10.3 percent decrease in the average number of drums heard per route between 2012 (11.8) and 2013 (10.6). Highest drumming counts were in Zone 1 (Upper Peninsula; 14.5), followed by Zone 2 (northern Lower Peninsula; 9.4) and Zone 3 (southern Lower Peninsula; 6.4).

Analysis at the regional scale indicated there was nearly a significant difference (n=26; t=2.0, P=0.4) in the number of drums heard per route in Zone 1 (Upper Peninsula) between 2012 (17.4) and 2013 (14.9).  There was no significant change (n=52; t=2, P=0.4) in the average number of drums heard per route in Zone 2 (Northern Lower Peninsula) between 2012 (9.9) and 2013 (9.1).  In Zone 3, there were eight routes conducted in both 2012 and 2013.  Due to the low sample size, statistical analysis at the Zone 3 regional scale is not appropriate.

Grouse/woodcock hunter cooperators hunting the first four days of ruffed grouse season reported an average of 1.7 grouse per hour in 2012 compared to 2.0 grouse per hour in 2011. Hunters opinions about the 2012  ruffed grouse population were mixed; 27 percent of the respondents thought grouse populations were up or slightly up from 2011 in the areas they hunted, with 41 percent reporting the population is the same and 32 percent reported they were down or slightly down.  For the full season, the average number of ruffed grouse flushed per hour by cooperators in 2012 (1.66) was slightly lower than the number of birds flushed per hour in 2011 (1.91).  The average number of woodcock flushed per hour statewide by cooperators was slightly higher between 2012 (1.57) and 2011 (1.2).

Stewart concludes, “Based on current survey data, I expect the grouse population this fall will be on a slight decline following the peak of the cycle in 2011.  The 2013 fall ruffed grouse and woodcock numbers could be similar if not a little bit lower statewide compared to 2012.  With favorable annual production, hunters could take approximately 240,000 grouse and 74,000 woodcock in 2013. 

Although spring arrived two weeks later than normal; the warm, average weather conditions this year may have a positive impact on brood survival.  If we have favorable production this spring, I anticipate fall ruffed grouse and woodcock numbers could be similar to or only down slightly from last year. Due to normal rainfall and lack of early summer frosts, I expect soft mast production to be very good this fall compared to 2012.”

The ruffed grouse season begins on September 15, statewide.*  In 2013, the opening date for woodcock hunting will be September 21.*  The USFWS framework for Michigan allows for the woodcock hunting season to open no earlier than the Saturday closest to September 22 and to run for no more than 45 days.

Are you looking for new places to hunt grouse and woodcock?  Stewart invites hunters to explore the 10-million acres of public land in Michigan. You can plan your next hunting adventure online with Mi-HUNT. This DNR hunting tool allows people to search for grouse and woodcock habitat on public hunting lands. “Bird hunters have found this tool to be very helpful for viewing different forest types, topography, satellite imagery and road layers…all from the comfort of their own home”, said Stewart.  “There’s even a tutorial designed for grouse hunters.”  To learn more about this free interactive mapping application, visit www.michigan.gov/mihunt for details.

More Ruffed Grouse Hunting Forecasts 

Prospects good for Michigan grouse hunters

By Darin Potter

Lansing — Hunters throughout the state in pursuit of upland birds and small game can expect another successful season this fall. Upland game birds like ruffed grouse and woodcock should be found in good numbers, and rabbits and squirrels are plentiful.

“The 2013 fall ruffed grouse and woodcock numbers could be similar if not a little bit lower statewide compared to 2012. With favorable annual production, hunters could take approximately 240,000 grouse and 74,000 woodcock in 2013,” Al Stewart, the DNR’s upland game bird specialist, told Michigan Outdoor News. “Although spring arrived two weeks later than normal in 2013, the warm, average weather conditions this year may have a positive impact on brood survival. If we have favorable production this spring, I anticipate fall ruffed grouse and woodcock numbers could be similar to or only down slightly from last year.”

Stewart said grouse drumming counts were down this spring.

Using data from 87 routes run in 2012 and 2013, statewide there was a 10.3-percent decrease in the average number of drums heard per route between 2012 (11.8) and 2013 (10.6).

The drumming counts were highest in Zone 1 (14.5 drums per route), followed by Zone 2 (9.4) and Zone 3 (6.4).

Grouse season runs Sept. 15 to Nov. 14, then re-opens Dec. 1 to Jan. 1. The woodcock season opens Sept. 21 and ends Nov. 3.

When hunting woodcock, a Harvest Information Program endorsement is required. The HIP survey takes about a minute to complete and must be added by the agent when you purchase a small-game license.

A relatively new tool created by the DNR called, MI-Hunt (www.michigan.gov/mihunt) gives hunters the ability to scout areas ahead of the season by viewing land from aerial photos and learning the habitat online. With 10 million acres of public land in Michigan, it’s not difficult to find areas that hold upland game birds or game animals, according to Stewart.

“Bird hunters have found this tool to be very helpful for viewing different forest types, topography, satellite imagery, and road layers – all from the comfort of their own home. There’s even a tutorial designed for grouse hunters,” he said.

2012 Ruffed Grouse and Woodcock Forecasts MN, WI, MI, ME

by Larry Brown


Grouse hunters in the Upper Midwest this year will likely start to notice declining bird numbers - the periodic “cycle” of grouse populations is definitely trending down. On the positive side, spring came early to the North Country, and reproduction should have been generally good for both grouse and woodcock. Woodcock singing ground surveys are stable, even increasing in some areas, indicating that the bird’s long-term decline appears to have taken a break this year. We’ll provide ruffed grouse harvest data where it’s currently lacking (Minnesota and Michigan) when it becomes available. We’ll also add brood survey reports as we get them.

Although harvest data from 2011 were not yet available when this forecast was prepared, MINNESOTA probably retained its position as the nation’s number one destination for grouse. But the spring drumming survey produced counts that were half as high as they were just three years ago. That is indicative of a definite decline in the population of adult birds. Anecdotal reports of hens with large broods, coupled with the favorable spring and early summer weather, provide hope that the young birds of the year will at least partially compensate for overall declining numbers.

The grouse harvest in WISCONSIN showed a slight increase over 2010: 337,000 birds bagged versus 324,000. But the 2011 spring drumming count showed a statewide decrease of 25 percent. While that sounds like a lot, it’s actually quite similar to the 2010 drumming survey. This means that hunters should be able to look forward to bird numbers that are perhaps down slightly from last year, but much like those of two years ago. Although the drumming survey showed the sharpest decline in the northern region, grouse numbers there are still the best in the state. And singing ground surveys show that woodcock numbers have been increasing, slowly but steadily, for several years.

Michigan and Maine forecasts and complete Traveling Wingshooter article